THE SPORTS ADVISORS
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 18
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Central Michigan (8-2, 7-2 ATS) at Ball State (1-9, 5-5 ATS)
Central Michigan looks to remain the only unbeaten team in the Mid-American Conference and move another step closer to the West Division championship when it travels to Ball State Stadium for a divisional tussle with the Cardinals.
The Chippewas spotted Toledo leads of 7-0 and 14-7 last Wednesday – the first time all year they trailed a conference opponent – then scored six unanswered touchdowns en route to a 56-28 nationally televised rout, covering as a 17½-point home favorite. Star QB Dan LeFevour – four-year starter – stole the show again, accounting for six of his team’s eight touchdowns (2 passing, 4 rushing), and he finished 29 of 36 passing for 341 yards to go with 19 rushing yards on 14 carries, and Central Michigan rolled up 507 total yards.
The Chippewas lead Northern Illinois by one game in the MAC West Division. If Northern Illinois wins at Ohio on Saturday, those teams will square off for the division title at Central Michigan next week no matter the result of this game.
Ball State has followed up its only win of the season – a 29-27 victory over still-winless Eastern Michigan – with a pair of narrow losses to Ohio (20-17 at home) and Northern Illinois (26-20 on the road). On the bright side, the Cardinals covered as an underdog in both games, improving to 5-3 ATS in their last eight (5-2 ATS as a ‘dog). Ball State, which is 1-11 SU since starting last year 12-0, has scored 20 points or fewer in eight of its last 10 games (including four of its last five)
On the way to their perfect regular season last year, the Cardinals knocked off Central Michigan 31-24 as a six-point road favorite in a battle for the division title. Ball State ended a four-game SU and three-game ATS losing skid to the Chippewas with last year’s victory, despite getting outgained 466-407 and despite LeFevour’s 345-yard, two-TD passing day. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and CMU has cashed in five of its last six trips to Ball State Stadium.
Both teams can run the football – Central Michigan averages 169.7 rushing yards per game (4.6 per carry) and Ball State averages 163.2 rushing ypg (4.5 per carry) – but otherwise, the Chippewas are much stronger offensively. They put up 33.1 points, 402.5 total yards and 232.8 passing yards per game, while the Cardinals net just 20.5 points, 307 total yards and 143.8 passing yards per outing.
Central Michigan also has big advantages on defense, allowing 18 points and 341 yards per game (119 rushing ypg), compared with Ball State’s 28.6 points and 366.5 total yards allowed per contest (155.1 rushing ypg).
The Chippewas are on ATS runs of 37-15-3 overall, 11-5-2 on the road, 23-8-2 as a favorite, 5-1 as a chalk of more than 10 points, 23-7-2 against MAC foes and 18-6-2 versus losing teams. Ball State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven when catching more than 10 points and 4-1 in its last six in November, but it has failed to cover in five of six at home and four of five as a home pup.
The over is now 7-1 in Central Michigan’s last eight games, but otherwise the team is on “under” runs of 4-0 on the road, 4-1 as a road chalk, 4-1 on grass and 5-0 after a spread-cover. Ball State is riding “under” streaks of 4-1 overall (all in conference), 4-1 at home, 4-0 as an underdog and 8-2 in November. Finally, the last two series meetings in Ball State went over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Buffalo (3-7, 4-6 ATS) at Miami (Ohio) (1-10, 5-6 ATS)
Two MAC teams just playing for nothing but pride get national television exposure for the third straight week, with Buffalo visiting MAC East rival Miami (Ohio).
The Bulls have lost three straight games by a total of seven points, the last two at home to Bowling Green (30-29 as a three-point favorite) and Ohio (27-24 as a 1½-point chalk). Buffalo’s last four games (all against MAC opponents) were decided by four points or less, and its last five conference contests were decided by a total of 18 points, with the Buffs going 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS.
Miami’s lone victory of the season came against Toledo on Halloween – 31-24 as a five-point home underdog – but the Redhawks followed that with a 34-32 loss at Temple (covering as a 17-point underdog) and a 35-14 setback to Bowling Green on Thursday as a four-point home pup. Despite last week’s non-cover, Miami is still 5-2 ATS in its last seven (all as an underdog), which follows a 4-15 ATS slide.
Since opening the season with a 23-17 upset win at UTEP as a 10½-point underdog, Buffalo is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS on the highway. Meanwhile, going back to the end of the 2007 season the Redhawks are 3-22 SU, including 2-15 in MAC play and 1-9 at home against Division I-A competition.
Buffalo averaged 18.6 ppg in its first five games, but its offense has come to life in the last five, putting up an average of 29 ppg, tallying 24 or more in each contest. Meanwhile, the Redhawks had scored season-highs of 31 and 32 points in consecutive games before mustering just the two touchdowns against Bowling Green last week. Miami, which was shutout in its first two games against Kentucky (42-0) and Boise State (48-0), has scored 14 points or less in six of its 11 games this year.
Buffalo ended a 10-game, all-time series losing skid to Miami with last year’s 37-17 rout at home, finishing with a 476-383 edge in total offense (216-142 rushing). The Bulls have covered in three straight meetings, including a 31-28 loss as a 6½-point underdog in their last trip to Fred Yager Stadium in 2007.
The Bulls have cashed in 11 of their last 14 road games, but they’ve failed to cover in seven straight games as a favorite. The Redhawks’ current 5-2 ATS overall run is offset by pointspread nosedives of 6-13 in MAC contests, 4-9 at home, 2-7 in November and 8-21-1 against teams with a losing record.
Buffalo is on “over” stretches of 7-2 on the road, 6-2 as a favorite, 25-10 in conference and 5-1 in November. On the other hand, Miami is on “under” runs of 5-2 overall (all as a ‘dog), 4-1 at home (all as a ‘dog) and 5-1 when playing on grass. Finally, the over is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings, with the last four in a row topping the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BUFFALO and OVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(11) Butler (1-0, 0-1 ATS) at Northwestern (1-0 SU and ATS)
Butler, which entered this year with its highest preseason ranking in school history, makes the trek to Welsh Ryan Arena in Evanston, Ill., for a non-conference battle with the Wildcats.
The Bulldogs, who went one-and-done in last year’s NCAA Tournament, tipped off the season with Saturday’s 73-62 home win over Davidson, falling short as a 14-point favorite. It was Butler’s fifth consecutive ATS setback dating to February. Long known for its defense, Butler has limited 17 of its last 20 opponents – including eight of the last nine – to 63 points or fewer, with 12 of those 17 scoring less than 60 points.
Northwestern ended last year with three straight losses, including an opening-round NIT setback to Tulsa, but started off strong with Friday’s 77-55 rout of Northern Illinois as a 14-point home favorite. Like Butler, the Wildcats are a strong defensive team, allowing less than 70 points in seven straight games and 15 of the last 18.
These squads met last year in Indianapolis, and Butler eked out a 57-53 home win, pushing as a four-point favorite.
Despite their ongoing 0-5 ATS slump, the Bulldogs are on positive ATS runs of 35-15-1 in non-conference play, 3-0-1 against the Big Ten and 7-2-1 on Wednesday. Northwestern is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home and 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 non-league contests, but otherwise the Wildcats are in ATS funks of 0-3-1 against Horizon League opponents, 1-4 after a spread-cover, 7-15-1 on Wednesday and 0-6 when coming off a victory of more than 20 points.
Although an outstanding defensive squad, Butler is on “over” streaks of 9-3 overall, 5-1 on the road, 4-0 in non-conference games and 9-2 after a non-cover, but the under is 5-2 in the Bulldogs’ last seven against Big Ten opposition. Also, the over for Northwestern is on streaks of 3-1-1 overall, 19-7-1 at home, 3-1-1 in non-league games and 7-0 on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
Miami (7-2, 6-3 ATS) at Atlanta (9-2, 10-1 ATS)
The red-hot Hawks shoot for their sixth consecutive win and cover when they welcome Dwyane Wade and the Heat to Philips Arena for a showdown between the top two teams in the Southeast Division.
Miami capped a five-game homestand with last night’s 100-87 loss to Oklahoma City as a seven-point home favorite. The Heat have alternated wins and losses in their last four games and haven’t lost two in a row all season, but they’ve now failed to cover in three straight games after starting the season 6-1 ATS. Miami is 2-0 SU and ATS on the road, knocking off Indiana (96-83 as a two-point underdog) and Washington (93-89 as a two-point underdog).
Atlanta needed overtime to knock off Portland 99-95 as a 3½-point home favorite Monday, rallying from a 12-point second-half deficit to extend its SU and ATS winning streaks to five. Joe Johnson scored 35 points (eight in overtime) to pace the Hawks against the Blazers, and during its win streak Atlanta is averaging 111.2 points per game (49.7 percent shooting) while allowing 96 ppg (45.5 percent). The Hawks are 5-0 SU and ATS at home, winning the first four by margins of 11, 11, 25 and 23 points prior to Monday’s narrow overtime win over Portland. Going back to last year, they’ve won seven straight regular-season games at Philips Arena.
These division rivals met in an opening-round playoff series last year, with Atlanta prevailing in seven games. Going back to the regular season last year, the Hawks are 6-3 against the Heat (5-4 ATS), and the home team has won eight of the last 10 meetings, with the host (and favorite) cashing in four of the last five.
The SU winner has covered in 22 of Miami’s last 24 games, while the winner is 21-1-1 ATS in Atlanta’s last 23. Finally, the winner cashed in all seven playoff games between these teams last year and is 17-2 ATS in the last 19 head-to-head clashes.
Miami is on ATS runs of 5-1 on Wednesday, 4-1 when playing on back-to-back nights and 5-2 against the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, in addition to its 10-1 ATS run to start the season, Atlanta carries positive pointspread trends of 19-7-2 at home, 20-6-1 as a favorite, 6-0 as a favorite of five to 10½ points, 4-1-1 against the Eastern Conference, 5-1-1 when playing on one day of rest and 4-0 on Wednesday.
The Heat are riding “under” streaks of 7-2 overall, 5-2 on the road, 4-0 in divisional games, 4-0 as an underdog and 10-2 against teams with a winning record. The under is also 8-3 in the Hawks’ last 11 division contests, but otherwise Atlanta is on “over” stretches of 6-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 6-0 as a favorite and 5-0 on Wednesday. Finally, the under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings between these squads, with five of the last seven in Atlanta staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
San Antonio (4-4 SU and ATS) at Dallas (8-3 SU and ATS)
The Spurs and Mavericks hook up for the second time in a week, with the scene shifting to American Airlines Arena where Dallas returns home in search of its fourth straight victory.
San Antonio has been idle since Saturday’s shocking 101-98 home loss to the Thunder as an 8½-point favorite. The Spurs have yet to win on the road this year (0-3 SU and ATS) and going back to last year’s opening-round playoff series loss to Dallas, they’ve dropped five straight on the highway (SU and ATS). This is San Antonio’s only roadie in an eight-game stretch, as it plays its next four in a row at home after tonight.
Dallas started its recent four-game road trip with last Wednesday’s 92-83 loss at San Antonio as a 1½-point favorite, then ripped off three straight wins and covers over Minnesota (89-77 as a 10½-point chalk), Detroit (95-90 as a 4½-point favorite) and Milwaukee (115-113 as a 1½-point underdog). In Monday’s win over the Bucks, All-Star forward Dirk Nowitzki led five Mavericks in double figures with a game-high 32 points, the final two coming on a buzzer-beating jumper in overtime to seal the win.
With last week’s nine-point home win, the Spurs snapped a three-game losing skid to Dallas – all in last year’s playoffs. The Mavs are 5-2 SU and ATS in the last seven meetings at American Airlines Arena (3-0 SU and ATS last three), and host is on a 4-1 SU and ATS roll in this rivalry. Additionally, the SU winner has covered the spread in each of the last 11 head-to-head meetings.
Going back to last year, the winner has cashed in 12 straight Spurs games and 23 of Dallas’ last 25 outings, including all 11 this year.
Not only has San Antonio failed to cover in five straight road games, it is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 on Wednesday, 3-7 ATS in its last 10 against Southwest Division rivals and 3-8 in its last 11 against opponents with a winning record. Conversely, the Mavericks are on ATS upticks of 5-1 overall, 9-4 at home and 14-6 on Wednesday.
The Spurs have stayed under the total in five of their last seven road games, but from there, it’s all “over” trends for Gregg Popovich’s team, including 10-4 overall, 6-2 in divisional games, 9-3 against Western Conference foes, 10-1 after a SU loss, 12-2 after a non-cover and 4-0 when playing after three or more days’ rest. Similarly, the Mavericks are on “over” stretches of 5-2 overall, 5-2 at home, 4-1 against Southwest Division rivals and 6-1 when playing after one day of rest.
Lastly, the over is 5-2 in the last seven Mavs-Spurs battles and 3-1 in the last four in Dallas, though last week’s contest in San Antonio stayed well under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS and OVER
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